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Post by Capybara on May 16, 2022 20:22:58 GMT -5
Tribal went exactly as expected. Time to collectively gamble for immunity. Hopefully we don't have a back to back tribal because that would suck for tribe morale. I feel like we have one or two easy votes left if things activity wise stay the same, so I'm not feeling very concerned right now, but I'd rather not use them. The more challenge wins my tribe gets, the better/ The more numbers my tribe has come merge time, the better.
So far I've put down a bid of zero for this raffle challenge, because it is very tempting to be selfish and keep all my points to myself. However, looking at the prices, extra entries are pretty cheap pre-merge. 3 entries for 3 points ain't a bad deal at all.
I pressed the button for the post-merge idol at 9:05pm EDT today. For reference, the target was 9:04pm EDT. So I think I did pretty good, though next time I'd like to get it right on the dot, because I'm not spending more points on this thing than I have to. Next button press is on the 18th.
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Qhulgil
Production Team Member
Posts: 1
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Post by Qhulgil on May 17, 2022 20:00:51 GMT -5
What is a Sun Tzu quote that you find to be applicable to Survivor?
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Post by Capybara on May 18, 2022 9:51:47 GMT -5
What is a Sun Tzu quote that you find to be applicable to Survivor? Probably: "The quality of decision is like the well-timed swoop of a falcon which enables it to strike and destroy its victim." |
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Post by Capybara on May 18, 2022 16:22:17 GMT -5
So I'm kind of being a snake. I'm cracking open my social game.
I've decided that I'm going to jump on the alliance train early. What prompted this? Well a couple things. Firstly, Pika had kind of jokingly proposed an alliance between us really early on, called the "Cult of Rodents and Rodent-Adjacent Pikas" or "CRRAP" for short (haha get it becuase we're gonna CRRAP all over the competition, we are very mature). It's been a little bit of a running gag, but I think Pika does sincerely want to work with me. So as of today I proposed to them that we should turn the CRRAP into a real alliance and invite some rodent-adjacent members of the tribe to it.
The other cascade to this was Ermine asked me yesterday if I had heard about any alliances. Which got me thinking. I haven't heard about any alliances yet, so why not make my own with Ermine.
Now originally I thought of making one alliance wind Ermine and Pika and call it a day. But why limit my alliance circles? Why have only one alliance when you can have two?
So now I've proposed two separate alliances. An alliance with Ermine and an alliance with Pika. And furthermore, each alliance is inviting an additional member that I brought up. So within the next few hours or so, I will be a part of two separate 3 person alliances. I'm packing heavy to next tribal council.
The two alliances will be:
- Pika, Elephant Shrew, and myself
- Ermine, Fennec Fox, and myself
Now there are enormous risks to this. Becuase I'm totally going to be playing both sides here. If my two alliances go after each other for some reason in the future, I'll be stuck in the middle. Which puts me in a powerful position but one that could totally blow up in my face. Another factor is that Pika or Ermine could be totally bullshitting me, and could be making it public knowledge right now that I'm trying to make alliances. And worse, if the two alliances I've proposed get too close, my double-sided nature could be revealed.
Then there's the Red Panda matter. Red Panda clearly is the most social player on our tribe, with Elephant Shrew likely up there as well. I have no idea how much influence Red Panda has in my tribe, but I'm betting it is a lot. I'm hoping there will be a vote against them before merge. I don't really want to work with someone who is the clear social threat. I want those people gone. However, if Red Panda is close with my alliance members, I could be biting off more than I can chew and make myself I target. This was part of my downfall the first game, I suggested targeting the social leader early and it got me targeted in response. So I won't be directly going after Red Panda right now. But I hope to build social ties that are strong enough to take down the players who make more posts than me and who have sent more pms than me in the future. I think I've been doing a good job with the social game so far, but I know I'm not the best social player on the tribe.
Next tribal should be very interesting. I hope to get close with my two alliances before then so that I have some significant influence in who goes home when the votes become not so easy. But if I'm too much of a snake and play this harder than I already am, I'm worried I'll be the next to go. But I can't live with myself if I don't make this move. Last time I played, I was the 4th elimination. I could probably coast in this game and not make any major risks early game, and beat that no problem. But surviving the game longer by playing it safe doesn't suit me. Sure, I would improve upon last time, but I wouldn't do anything special.
So I'm going to take risks. Becuase if I can take risks and improve from last game, I'll be happy. More than happy. I'll be satisfied.
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Post by Capybara on May 19, 2022 15:02:50 GMT -5
I pressed the button at 9:05pm last night. Not the 9:04pm I wanted, but once again, close enough.
The alliances have been founded, and things seem to be going well.
Once again, Ermine came up with the strategy for the challenge. She's great at this challenge stuff so far, but I hope she doesn't make herself a target over it. There's a good chance Human Child may go MIA on this challenge, which stinks, but we have a good backup plan if Human Child fails to submit a form. I imagine if we loose the challenge though, our loss will be blamed on Human Child, and they will likely go home.
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Post by Capybara on May 19, 2022 19:14:12 GMT -5
We lost the challenge. Frack.
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Post by Capybara on May 20, 2022 12:05:04 GMT -5
Alright. So even though Human Child did participate in the challenge, it seems she's still going to be the one packing their bags tonight, because she isn't very active pm wise. Only her name has come up tonight. Which means it's going to be another easy vote based off low activity.
After this though I'd say we've exhausted our easy votes. Slow Loris could potentially be an easy vote, but I wouldn't bet my life on it. Red Panda mentioned to me earlier that it may be worth keeping Slow Loris around as someone to easily beat at the end due to lower activity, but I'm not sure if a majority of the tribe would go for that. I suppose I could make something happen by coordinating with my alliances, but I'm not sure if that would be worth it. We'll have to see.
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Post by Capybara on May 20, 2022 21:10:25 GMT -5
Man I was done absolutely dirty with this swap.
If you recall, between my two alliances, my four allies were Ermine, Fennec Fox, Elephant Shrew, and Pika. Notice how absolutely none of them are on my new tribe. Now I will admit, I was definitely playing a little dangerous by being involved in two alliances at once there, but that's not to say I won't miss them. Elephant Shrew and Fennec Fox were hilarious. Pika struck me as a really sincere person and I loved the CRRAP thing we had going. Ermine was a real help in the challenges and I enjoyed talking about random animal stuff with her. It's a bummer none of them are on my new tribe.
Now, it's not all bad. Our tribe is a 3-3 split between former Animal Pen and former Aviary tribe. Which means if we go to tribal, I won't be outnumbered by old tribe alliances. However, it does mean that Tribal Council will be from easy becuase all it takes is one person to flip. Putting that aside, I'm glad that Sand Cat is with me on this new tribe. While we haven't talked about game strategy too much with each another, I feel like we have a good connection. Quokka I'm not too close with, but they're growing on me. I hope I don't have to vote them off anytime soon.
In other news, I totally forgot to hit my idol button this evening. I'm just gonna do it tomorrow night rather than hit it an hour late. 72 hours between button presses sucks but it is what it is.
A question I have is who voted for me last tribal? I was not expecting to get votes at all. I suppose it doesn't matter much now that we've swapped, but still. Ouch. I'm gonna figure that out tomorrow.
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Post by Capybara on May 21, 2022 20:38:31 GMT -5
I hit the button right at 9:04 tonight. Rock on!
In other news, I learned from Sand Cat that the votes on me were based on the suspicion that Human Child may have had an idol. Which is interesting. Not sure what to make of that. Elephant Shrew and Pika warned me hours before the vote that some votes were headed my way, but I was asleep so I didn't see them until after Tribal. Assuming that there are indeed three people who voted for me, Human Child was obviously one. The other two is a little more tricky. I have reason to suspect Slow Loris, because she said to me that she was hearing "human child mostly too", but did not elaborate further even though I had promised that I would let her know if it looked like votes were coming my way. Though I suppose if I had directly asked what other names she heard, I may have gotten a straighter answer. No way to know now thanks to the swap. I am also suspicious of Ermine, because we didn't talk about the vote at all.
Hopefully we win this upcoming challenge, but going up against one tribe was hard enough. Going up against two? That's a tough sell.
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Post by Capybara on May 22, 2022 8:55:11 GMT -5
So I have until 7:30pm EDT to decide if I want to search for an idol. Since I've gotten votes in the past and unfortunately this info was leaked out by some of my tribemates, I need to consider that because I got votes in the past that may be a reason to make me an easy vote. Now, I don't think Sand Cat or Quokka voted for me last tribal. But truth be told, I'm not sure if myself and the other two former Animal Pen members are willing to deadlock tribal into a 3-3 tie. I have exactly the 24 points needed to search for an idol in secret with 30% odds. If I'm lucky, I'll blow all my points but have an idol. If I'm unlucky, I'll blow all my points and have nothing to show for it. Not to mention spending all my points means I'd be hurting my tribe in all future cuteness raffles.
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Post by Capybara on May 22, 2022 18:26:28 GMT -5
Yup, screw it, putting all my points down for this idol.
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Post by Capybara on May 22, 2022 19:13:11 GMT -5
HELL YEAH IDOL FOUND!!!
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Post by Capybara on May 23, 2022 15:04:33 GMT -5
I have so much to think about for this vote.
First of all, my idol. I made a last minute decision to gamble cute points for one because I was concerned that the votes I got against me last tribal would make me a target, and I didn't want to go home if there was a draw between myself and someone else and we re-voted. Now, do I play the idol and make sure I'm safe, or do I hold onto it? After all, it is good until the final five.
I'm not quite sure where the vote is heading but I think have a good idea of the possibilities. Meerkat and Harp Seal tell me that they plan to vote Quokka out, and that Quokka and Sand Cat are gunning for me. Ferret is on the fence. Sand Cat tells me that she and Quokka plan to vote Meerkat and they hope to pull in Ferret to give us majority. I have heard nothing tribal wise from Ferret or Quokka. Interestingly, from both perspectives, Ferret is in the middle, so that is probably true.
Now, I don't entirely believe what Meerkat is selling. It doesn't make any sense to me that the former Aviary are so willing to work with me while the former Animal Pen are trying to get me out. Wouldn't it be the opposite? Furthermore, I imagine Sand Cat and Quokka wouldn't move against me without help from at least one or two former Aviary tribe members. So either there's a big plot against me or none at all. Harp Seal does seem to genuinely want to work with me, but I'm not sure if that extends to their ally Meerkat. Something isn't right with this picture, and I don't know what it is. It would help if I got a response from Ferret soon. So as a result of this, I have some suspicions that Meerkat (or possibly Meerkat and Harp Seal) is trying to get me to vote Quokka in order to break the 3-3 deadlock and swing me to their side and build a wedge between me and former Animal Pen. Either way, no matter their intentions, I know Harp Seal and Meerkat will be voting together.
Now, I have mentioned my suspicions of Meerkat to Seal and Sand Cat. Seal assures me that they're not trying to play me, and that they want to pull me in to vote out Quokka. Sand Cat assures me that the plan is to vote Meerkat with Quokka's (and hopefully Ferret's) help. I am inclined to believe both of them since they've both been straight with me, but not hearing from Quokka or Ferret really makes everything unsure for me.
Oope! Just got a message from Ferret. I'll have to look over that. But right now, I think this vote is going to deadlock 3-3, with me, Meerkat, and Quokka potentially at risk. The one thing I am sure of is that everyone loves Harp Seal.
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Post by Capybara on May 23, 2022 18:30:12 GMT -5
This tribal is so nerve-racking! I swear if it turns out Meerkat was telling the truth all along I owe them a big apology. But they're probably lying to me.
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Post by Capybara on May 23, 2022 18:31:48 GMT -5
Ugh I'm really leaning towards playing my idol but if the vote is actually on Quokka and Meerkat then I'd be wasting it. But assuming the former Aviary are gunning for me (likely) or Sand Cat and Quokka are actually gunning for me (according to Meerkat) then I should totally play an idol.
This is such a mess.
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