Welcome to Your Confessional!

God every single tribal is terrifying. This game is brutal.

Ok so if we have

Me
Sand Cat
Jerboa
Fennec
Ermine
Pika
Meerkat
Dolphin
Slow Loris

And I want my final five to be me sand cat pika fennec and ermine I need to figure out a roadmap for that.

I am incredibly torn on who I want my final 3 to be. I want to be there with sand cat fennec and pika. That is unfortunately 3 people for 2 slots. Decisions I dont have to think about now but tough ones.

Well I was going to kick the tires on a jerboa vote this TC but looks like that's not an option.

Mmmmmmm.

This vote is the first one in a while where we've actually been tested. There's a big push onto ermine which is probably my fault because I threw her name into a list of people I was willing to vote because I was trying to create distance between us and instead it looks like it just got picked up.

I don't think this is the right time for me to lose one of my four, so we have to fight. This vote is going to test a lot of things.

Each of these is taking years off of my life.

On his way out meerkat told me he thinks I'm going to win if I get past 7. Dolphin has been spreading the narrative that me and pika are the big threats to win the game. I don't know how true any of that is but its annoying if this is the prevailing consensus this early. We have 5 more TCs. I honestly don't think anyone is out of it so having to deal with this argument this early is pretty frustrating.

At the same time I said going in to this game that I wasn't going to play the whole "who can win who can't" game and just take my game to the jury with players I like and respect if I get that chance. A lot of people have said similar things to me but obviously that's what they would say regardless. I know I can't count on that and be hyper vigilant. I have to hope that the relationships I built are real and count on a little luck and a little bit of self preservation to shift the votes where I want them to go.

That brings me to the current challenge, which I kind of love. It's a very straight forward balance of risk and reward with a very simple question, but I think there's a lot of layers to how I play it.

It's much better to be safe at 7 than 8, both because just the fewer players remaining the higher percentage chance of you being the vote, but also because odd numbers are much more dangerous than even numbers because its much easier to build a majority when you dont have to worry about ties so people tend to make moves on odd numbers.

But none of that matters if you think you're going out right now, and what percentage chance of maybe being the vote at 8 is worth that safety at much more dangerous 7.

I am not really sure what my best play is. I don't feel particularly threatened but that would just be me playing by my sense of smell.

On the other hand that's kind of what I have to do.

The other wrinkle is the point spend. There are several factors here, the most important being that I think safety at 8 is probably not worth spending points on, but safety at the more dangerous 7 is absolutely worth spending a lot of points on. The way I decide on deferring definitely effects how hard I go for immunity here.