Dolphin Diaries

Haha, you don't need to apologise to me for being busy. It happens. We work with what we've got.
What I'm frustrated about is that a lot of people expressed SUPPORT for the idea of getting Jerboa out, but then said someone they weren't willing to name wanted to keep Jerboa around for a round and vote Whet Owl this time. The only person who told me outright that they didn't want Jerb last night was Pika. So my inference is that she's the one who spearheaded Whet Owl last vote.

I've got two ideas, both with advantages and disadvantages.

1) We try again for Jerboa at the next TC, with more commitment. We try and appeal to Pika and Lorry. At Final 8, we probably try to push... Ermine? And then at 7 we hope that people are starting to think about endgame and we look like viable people to sit next to in their plans.

I actually think this is likely to work, based on my conversations with Pika and Lorry. The problem I see is that we're basically giving all the cards to them. I don't see this as a solid way of getting either of us in a place where we might win this game. We might have a chance against like Lorry or something, but even then I think she's got an advantage. So that's why I've got another idea floating around.

2) Frankly, I think RP/Fennec/Pika/Sand Cat stand out REALLY hard right now as playing the most solid games. (Let me know if you agree or disagree!) I think critters that aren't those four need to be concerned about those four completely dominating this game. They are in the majority, and any endgame with all of them in it likely devolves into the four of them choosing how to split up, one or two of them making FTC, and one of them winning. So my idea is essentially to get a group against that group right now.

Jerboa feels paranoid and desperate, and just blew his idol - I believe he'd do it, if we tried to get him on board. I've been working on making amends with him and I think he currently sees a move with the outside as his only viable option.
Lorry seems to like chaos and has been teasing the idea of making a move for a little while with me. I think she's probably in the best spot of everyone at the 'bottom', but I think we could get her anyway.
I feel the main risk factor is Ermine, I'm not sure what she's thinking or where her head is at. But I do legitimately think Ermine needs to make a move soon if she wants a chance of winning, and maybe she'd listen to that appeal.

I think it's doable. Obviously very risky, but a lot more achievable than it seems at first glance. AND, it would be epic.

Let me know what you think. My preference is Plan 2, because why not go for something that completely shakes things up and gives us a solid shot at winning the game? But I'm with you on this. If Plan 1 feels safer to you and you'd prefer it, we can try our best to make things work from there.

I suppose I'll elaborate

I've been talking a bit with Jerboa. He basically came clean to me about lying about me, admitted a fair amount about how he's been playing sketchy, and essentially said he really didn't like his position and thought we were both towards the bottom. We chatted for a bit, and I think I actually have him on-side.
Meerkat seems to still be entirely up for a move as well (even though at this point if he just did nothing he'd probably be fine? lol)

We just need one more and we have the potential to make a move against the top at the upcoming TC, if that's something you wanted to do.

I have two ideas for how that could be pulled off:

1) We could try and get Pika interested in a play tonight? I don't get the sense that she wants a move right this second - I think she wants to bring us to 7 and then do something, when there's not much time or resources for us to counter her afterwards - but maybe she'd do it for us? I'm a little doubtful.

2) What is your read on Ermine? I feel like she should really be thinking about making a move here if she wants a shot at winning to be honest - and I wonder if pitching the fact that Pika/RP/Fennec/Sand Cat are all big social threats would be an effective way of persuading her. But I don't know if it'd work. Do you think she would make a play if she thought it would strengthen her chances of winning?

I do have a legit worry that Pika, RP, Fennec and Sand Cat together are all active, social and strong enough that letting them into Final 8 all together basically surrenders a ton of agency to them, and people are going to wonder what we did at the end compared to them. That's why I'm starting to think making a move this round might be the right play.

Plus, it would just be kinda epic lol. The last two votes have had boring/expected outcomes. Something like Cappy->Owl->Jerboa->Meerkat or Ermine is a very boring route to Final 7.

So I would love to hear your thoughts!

Hey Ermine, is there a time before this challenge is up where you and I can both be around and chat for a bit? We're getting closer to the end, and I'm starting to think about what's the best way to get there with a shot at winning.

I think you and I are in a uniquely similar situation, in that we're both around a bit less than the others in the game. I don't think that's stopped either of us from making connections or playing effective games. But I think this game is stacked surprisingly high with rather strong social players, and as a result I'm worried about my own chances against some of the bigger presences in the game.

I'm curious about your thoughts!